Plug a random forest into a causal regression and the confidence interval tightens around the wrong number, because regularisation bias shrinks more slowly than the standard error. Double machine learning fixes this with two devi…
A language model's stated confidence is a number, not a probability. Conformal prediction offers the opposite trade: it promises nothing about any single answer and something exact about the long run, from any scorer, with one as…
A 700-draw run of the eight-schools model reported R-hat of 1.01 and put the 2.5% quantile of the between-school spread at 0.89, while the exact posterior holds almost 18% of its mass below that value. Calling a sampler takes one…
In the fall of 1960 Rudolf Kalman presented a paper at NASA Ames that engineers found hard to grasp; by early 1961 it was navigating simulated spacecraft around the Moon. The same recursion now computes the exact likelihood of ev…
A dead Atlantic salmon, scanned in 2009, showed 16 'active' voxels at p below 0.001; every procedure that controlled an error rate across the family found none. This is the argument over what that error rate should be, from Holm …
CUSUM has been provably optimal since 1986, yet on the first human-annotated changepoint benchmark a detector that never reports a change beat most of the field under default settings. Seventy years of changepoint theory, from Pa…