Tagged “confounding”

3 posts.

All Model Architecture23 Training & Alignment22 Inference & Serving24 Agents & Orchestration13 Reasoning & Evaluation28 Safety, Security & Governance9 Platforms & Practice22

Reasoning & Evaluation 24 min

Double Machine Learning: How to Use Flexible Models for Causal Estimates Without Inheriting Their Bias

Plug a random forest into a causal regression and the confidence interval tightens around the wrong number, because regularisation bias shrinks more slowly than the standard error. Double machine learning fixes this with two devi…

observational-causal-methods causal-inference confounding estimation ∑ ◫

Platforms & Practice 25 min

The Controls That Make It Worse: Colliders, Mediators and Why Adjusting for Everything Is Wrong

Open surgery beat percutaneous nephrolithotomy on small kidney stones, 93% to 87%. It beat it on large stones too, 73% to 69%. Pooled across both, it lost, 78% to 83%. The arithmetic is correct in all three statements, and no amo…

causal-inference statistics confounding dags ∑ ◫

Reasoning & Evaluation 24 min

The Ladder of Causation: Why No Amount of Observational Data Climbs It Alone

In 2023 GPT-4 scored 97% on a classic cause-and-effect benchmark and 62% on one that hands it the causal graph and asks it to compute. Both results fit a theorem proved in 2020: data from one rung of Pearl's ladder almost never d…

causal-foundations causal-inference counterfactual dags ∑ ◫