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Journey — Promoting a Model

How a better model is proved to be better, in a product with no labels.

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Model engineer weekly cadence Goal — Prove the new model helps before 1.2 M developers meet it Trigger — A candidate that wins on the offline corpus by 4% Done when — Promoted on retention, or blocked with a number attached 1 · Register content addressed 2 · Evaluate held-out corpus 3 · Canary 1% / 24 h ◆ moment of truth 4 · Judge ◆ moment of truth 5 · Ramp 6 · Live with it What they do Pushes a digest Runs offline suite Opens 1% split Reads the arms Ramps to 100% Watches retention What the platform does Signs the artifact Refuses unevaluated Stable assignment Separate GPU pool Computes effect size Warms prefix caches Holds the control arm How it feels Confident Uneasy Blind Where it hurts Offline score misleads Cold caches skew p95 Acceptance up, retention down Rollout dismisses caches What answers it Immutable registry Eval as a gate, not a verdict Warm-up before measuring Retention is canonical Staged ramp by region Auto-rollback in 10 min Journey — Promoting a Model Nobody Asked For The trough is Judge: acceptance rises when a model is more confident, and retention is the only signal that notices the difference. v 1.0 · owner Developer Experience Architecture · date 2026-10

The trough is Judge

  • A more confident model raises acceptance while lowering retention: developers take the suggestion and delete it twenty minutes later. Acceptance alone cannot see this.
  • Retention arrives a day late, which means the canary window is set by the metric's latency rather than by the traffic needed for significance.

Decisions

  • The offline suite is a gate that can refuse and never promote: correlation with retention is too weak to be a verdict.
  • Canary measurement starts only after prefix caches have warmed, or the new arm is measured on cold-start latency and looks worse than it is.
  • The previous model stays mounted for 72 hours so rollback is an alias move rather than a redeploy.

Assumptions

  • Canary ≥ 1% of traffic for ≥ 24 h; rollout blocked on a relative acceptance regression > 1.5% at 95% confidence, or any retention regression.
  • Rollback to the previous registered version within 10 minutes.